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the market: stocks, bonds, options, whatever

S.J.B.

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I haven't posted in this thread in a while, looks like it's turned into mostly a crypto thread!

After trying my hand at technical analysis, and then options selling, and pulling out of both with minor profits when I realized I didn't really know what I was doing, I've now restrained the strong urge to gamble and have parked my savings in a 60% global equities / 40% domestic and American bonds ETF in a tax-free account (analogous to a Roth IRA). Less stressful than selling calls on GameStop, that's for sure!
 

Xorkoth

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Yeah I have most of my savings in 2 different mutual funds. I am about 25% in crypto. My plan has altered over time to amass positions and hold long term. Crypto is the best opportunity for tremendous gains we have, mass adoption is coming and institutional money is increasingly getting into the space. It's really challenging to stick to your guns because the fluctuations are so intense, though, and the news alternates between "OMG get rich quick" and "OMG Bitcoin is dead and crypto is a scam". This fluctuation in sentiment aligns with the direction they want the market to move. It is much more heavily manipulated than the stock market, but if you can ignore the noise (I'm not great at that), it's going to pay off big long term. And it's a hedge against fiat currency deflating or crashing, too.

Nevertheless I still have the vast majority of my money in the stock market. Whenever the crypto market next crashes I'm going to move some more from stocks into crypto because I think we're due for a stock market correction sometime in the relatively near future. But my bulk will still be in mutual funds, and my retirement account is too (which is my largest savings by far).

I only got into the stock market, besides my 401k, in April. I'm pretty flat to be honest, I mean one of my mutual funds is only up like 1% (though it's been as high as 10% at one point). The other is around 7%. The historical gains in one of them are averaged at 17.99% yearly and the other is higher but also less consistent. Crypto offers so much more gains than that if you do it right. I have been reactionary in the past and still struggle with it, but after a couple of years I am starting to know what I'm doing. But it's still riskier than stocks.
 

thujone

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i've become pretty bearish on crypto ecosystem lately. i don't feel confident in making a re-entry until bitcoin is <$10k and i just don't know when that will be so all i can do is stay ready.

the good thing about boring old equities is that you benefit from compound growth so yeah maybe your portfolio won't moon overnight like a slept-on cryptocoin but over time it's a more stable way to slowly get rich.
 

Xorkoth

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I seriously doubt BTC will ever drop below $10k anymore, I could see around $13k worst case (my friend calculated that this is the cost of production roughly, in electricity) - he says the last bear market touched down to the cost of production then before the last halvening which is where he got this from), but I do think we're heading down to retest somewhere in the $20ks at some point. I don't think it'll go below $20k but it might, but $10k? No way (IMO). But who knows? We should be due for a bear market sometime, and soon, this is the longest bull market ever for crypto. The question is, what will the bear market look like? And as we get closer to adoption, will we even see the sort of massive bull/bear cycles we saw before, where the general public give up on it for a year or more only to pile in when it starts moving again? Or is it going to be a steadier thing with much narrower price fluctuations over time?
 

thujone

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$10k is where I guess the ceiling on the fair market value of bitcoin to be. the recent rise in price was unexpected and can be correlated with billions of dollar "worth" of tether being tossed into the market, feeding the fire that is the USD/T exchange, which is the most actively traded pair by a significant amount.

basically i'm saying i don't trust at all the valuations right now because i think tether is distorting the market by a lot
 

Xorkoth

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Wouldn't there be MORE money in Bitcoin if there was no Tether, since people would just hold their crypto value in BTC instead of tether while not trading?
 

thujone

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Tether is created to be used for buying Bitcoin. It has no other use. The safe haven of dollar peg is a front that obscures the fluctuations in demand for Tether, which would otherwise be reflected in the price.

Normally, when the supply of an asset increases, the price falls, right? That's how it works when there's a transparent price discovery process. There is no such process for Tether, which is why it can remain at 1:1 with the USD, even when billions of dollars "worth" of Tether are wished into existence from time to time.

The purpose of auditing Tether was to determine whether it was actually backed by tangible assets that added up to the USD value of the Tether in circulation. As it turned out, Tether was only partially backed by anything, and a large chunk of that anything was shady crypto credit (the DeFi ecosystem). But I digress.

When newly minted Tether enters circulation and makes a beeline for Bitcoin, it drives the price of Bitcoin up because they're literally creating money/demand out of thin air, which they claim is equivalent to USD, to buy Bitcoin with.

So nobody really knows how much of the $47k cost of a Bitcoin is actually valid USD and how much of it is funny money shadow USD.
 

Mr. Krinkle

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ive been using USDC on my coinbase debit card for 4% back in XLM - i pay all my bills with it - it's great and i like XLM too - i used my paypal debit forever but they've lowered the cash back awards over the years








Flying The Rocketeer GIF
 

Xorkoth

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Yeah real estate is always a good bet. It does have quite the barrier to entry, though. To buy it outright you have to have a shit ton of money, and otherwise you're getting a mortgage and paying double or even more over 30 years. However if you get a mortgage for a fixer upper and flip it, you can make great money. You're right, real estate will always be valuable since people always need housing.

I own a home, have for 13 years. I refinanced to do major work on it recently and I still have a hundred grand in equity. I also live in a rapidly growing area in the country and so in 10 more years it'll be worth way more. But I really dream of selling one day and building a house on some land I buy outside town farther, some good land, and then I'd own it outright, no mortgage, and have exactly what I want. If I didn't have this mortgage payment I'd be saving SO MUCH money.
 

Xorkoth

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Market is popping (crypto I mean of course). Made a couple of good longs at 5x leverage with SOL, could been like 4x if I'd just held the first one but oh well, I'm still learning futures so trying to be careful. I invested the winnings in more ADA. STAK (Jigstack) is really moving today, my $500 investment is worth almost $3500 at the moment and it's still such a small market cap. Hasn't even had its first defi project launch on its platform yet. It's all staked in their platform, so that I will get a percentage of each project that launches off of there. I'm really glad I picked up 100K STAK when it was super cheap. Kinda wish I'd bought more! Or that I'd bought it all at the lowest point like my last buy in was. If I'd bought it all at the lowest I'd have around 350K STAK now. Really excited about that project, if it even hits $1.68 billion mkt cap, my bag will be worth $100,000.
 

Xorkoth

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Pi seems like a scam to infect your devices with an app which could be doing anything. "phone mining" a a silly idea, there's no way I know of for it to actually work. I have like a few hundred Pi, but we'll see if it ever amounts to anything.

I tried to install a Pi node on my PC and it made me disable a whole bunch of important security stuff so it could access my network and PC, every step of the way Windows was like "DUDE don't do that" Are you SURE?? I gave up on it and uninstalled all the node software.
 

Xorkoth

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I dunno, maybe. It's hard to say. I still have it on my phone, but don't try to operate a node, that's for sure. I haven't actually been using it for a while. I have serious doubts it will ever be anything but who knows?
 

Xorkoth

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Wow, BTC sure shit the bed last night. Sucks because I went into a long position at 3x leverage yesterday in ALGO, as it looked like it was about to break upwards, and there were very strong buy signals. I could have had those few hundred dollars free to go long in things at the bottom this morning, instead I'm 50% down on my ALGO position. Oh well, can't win 'em all. At least I didn't panic and sell at the very bottom as I was very tempted to do.

So sick of this bull market, I hope this finally kicks us into bear mode. I'm ready to accumulate large positions at dirt cheap prices in preparation for catching a full bull wave in 6-12 months. For months now I have been waiting for this shoe to drop, been getting such strong 2018 vibes:

13vPFZl.png


For months I have been unwilling to insert new capital into the crypto so I keep seeing all these coins popping off and missing it. This bull run has been so much longer than any other one thus far, 10 months now. It's time to cool off.
 

Mysterie

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i'm not selling but broke so can't do anything with the dip.

for the pro btc/crypto ppl what is your reaction to this take? kinda shook me..
its a 5 min clip

 

Xorkoth

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My crypto friends and I bought Lux Algo, a plugin indicator for TradingView. It prints buy/sell signals based on data, and we have found that if you catch them right away and make small futures plays (short on sell, long on buy), and set tight stops, you can get ~5% gain every time so far. You can use it for longer plays too as you can use the indicator on any time frame, but for 5 minute candles, it moves 1% or more every time in the direction indicated. So at 5x leverage, that's 5%. Set stop loss and take profit when you make the buy so it happens automatically.

Gave me the idea to write a bot in Python. The algorithm is, have a running loop waiting for "strong" buy/sell signals (several of these per crypto per day, it indicates temporary strong movement in one direction or the other is about to happen). When found, immediately place a futures order programmatically with your total balance, 5x leverage, 1% price movement for take profit and stop loss. When it triggers, you either gain or lose 5%. If 4 or 5 of these execute per day, that's, say 20% gain per day. Compounded daily, and it doesn't matter what direction the market is moving because you can bet on up or down with futures. My buddy and I are collaborating on trying to experiment and see if we can get something working. If it works, it'll be insane. Plug it in, start it, don't even have to watch. I've been analyzing the strong buy/sell signals on the 5min candle timeframe, and I have yet to find one where it doesn't move 1% or more within that 5 minutes, in the direction it says. The trick will be getting the TradingView API to work right and being able to receive the signals from Lux Algo through it. Should be possible but haven't worked it out yet.
 

thujone

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never heard of Lux Algo but I've been recording Bitcoin price data (time series) with the notion I might use it to backtest strategies for a trading bot.
 
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